This is a really well-implemented tool, and I encourage everyone to look at it.
I’m not quite sure what to conclude from the early voting numbers, plotted here and available by clicking this link (bloggers who want to grab a permalink from this site–click on the “share” button and you can grab the URL).
On the one hand, they show a pretty consistent 15 point advantage in the Obama vote among those respondents who say they have cast an early vote.
I looked more closely at the data, and they show 36.9% of the respondent pool thus far say they are Democrats versus 31.7% Republican. That is 3% above (Dem) / below (GOP) Gallup’s current estimate of party affiliation among likely voters.
What makes this hard to evaluate is that the states which currently have sent out absentee ballots are not a random subset of the nation as a whole. Nonetheless, in another week or so, these figures might start to give us a real sense of how the early vote is shaping up.